It’s miserable weather here. It has been colder, but we have a strong wind and freezing sleet.
Off the farm, many of our friends are sick or still having difficult times. We’re not seeing much of them.
I still don’t have a new work contract, and while I’m enjoying the break, I need to get back to paid work soon. I’m a business analyst, generally for government, and next week’s election in Australia has cut the amount of work on offer.
In my head, I know that the seasons will turn, and we’ll soon have some gorgeous September days of gentle warmth. And everything will be as it should.
In the wider world, it looks like the sharemarket is collapsing again. I’m not surprised.
The US keeps talking about the emerging recovery, but house prices are still dropping there. They have a lot of pain still to come, and their political system is dysfunctional at the moment. I read widely on economic matters, and the single most cogent webpage is here — this implies that the US sharemarket will keep dropping for 3 years, which I guess means a recession of at least 5 years for them. Unbearable.
In Europe, the countries owe each other immense amounts of money. They are expecting the US to bail them out, which won’t happen. Expect years of pain there too. Japan is in a mess and will stay there.
Australia will hold up as long as China does — which won’t be all that long, but hopefully they will get us past the worst of the world trouble. I have a comforting thought that perhaps India might do a bit better and soften the collapse of the mining boom. So I expect pain here too, but less than Europe and the US.
This then is the autumn of our discontent, with the worst to come. But in time, the seasons will turn and things will look a little better.
Fortunately, I moved my superannuation funds to bonds before the first stockmarket crash, then back to shares for most of the rebound, and late last year put it all into cash. So my timing has been pretty good but not perfect: I tend to jump about three months too early, as I am cautious more than greedy. I’d rather be safe than sorry.